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Fitch vs Penn should be NOC

Whether a casual or hardcore fan of MMA, I'm sure that you've caught wind of the BJ Penn vs Jon Fitch match up. A match up that will soon fill a very big void in the welterweight division. But it's much too soon...

The welterweight division is at it's weakest point right now in the UFC. George "Rush" St. Pierre has cleared out everybody and anybody in the division. Under the assumption that he defeats Josh Koscheck which he has already done, and assuming he can defeat Jake Shields who looked less then stellar in his UFC debut against Martin Kampmann, there is nobody left in the division for St. Pierre. Now as we all know nothing in mixed martial arts is for sure, but if I were to bet on the outcomes of those two fights, I'd be betting heavy on St. Pierre. So the question turns to what then? What after St. Pierre defeats both of his contenders? Do we as the public finally get granted our dream match? Do we finally see Anderson Silva face George St. Pierre. Are we finally allowed to witness history as one of them cements his place as one of if not THE greatest pound for pound fighter in mixed martial arts? No. From a pure marketing stand point you need to take into consideration that George St. Pierre fights Koscheck on December 11th. After which he’s already lined up to face Shields (pending a victory over Koscheck of course). A fight that if we’re lucky will take place only four months after his fight with Koscheck. However if you look at the dates of St. Pierre’s fight (not including the injury suffered after Thiago Alves fight.) There is a huge break in between so realistically we’re looking at an even longer period. That of six to seven months. And that is without even considering the possibility of an injury. If St. Pierre is to be injured in the fight with Koscheck it could potentially be a longer delay for his fight against Shields. After another following four to nine month span he’ll be ready for his next fight. But against who? Enter Anderson Silva?

No. And here’s why. Anderson is on the last fight of his current contract. Whether he resigns a contract with the UFC or leaves is still unknown. It was first reported he had expressed interest in retiring, currently his manager Ed Soares has stated that’s not true, he wants to stay at the 185lb division. What he decides is still unknown. What we do know is he will be facing Vitor Belfort. Now lots of people are looking past Belfort and for what reason I’m unsure. If we’ve learned anything from the Chael Sonnen and Anderson Silva’s fight, it’s that Silva can be rocked by strikes, and possibly knocked out. Chael Sonnen is not the kind of striker as Vitor Belfort. Vitor is much more accurate and precise. I don’t think Silva will be able to duck and weave his way around Vitor’s fists like he did Griffin, nor does Chael posses the hand speed of Vitor. Vitor has scary knock out power to go along with his lightning fast hands. If he lands he could potentially put Anderson down and become the new champion. IF that is too occur, is an Anderson Silva/George St. Pierre fight as relevant as it is now? Does it still matter or has the question been answered? I mean look what a loss to Werdum did to Emelianko. Sure he’s still one of if not the best heavy weight in the world. But in terms of Pound for Pound fighters it dropped him quite a bit. If Vitor beats Anderson does George not automatically become the better pound for pound fighter? Perhaps not in the world but certainly in the UFC. And lets keep in mind Anderson is getting old. At 35 he’s already passed his peak and may potentially be on the decline. But what if Anderson wins against Vitor? Okami has already been lined up to face the winner of Vitor/Silva. Anderson would then face Okami in which potentially could be a hype machine fight for Anderson. Okami is scary strong and a solid wrestling background. However as of late he’s chosen to demonstrate that he’s a more dynamic fighter and has preferred the stand up game. This falls perfectly into Anderson’s game. Okami is not nearly as big of a threat in striking as Vitor or even Chael. If Okami chooses to stand with Anderson, it’ll simply be a showcase of how great Anderson is and move him towards the top of the Pound for Pound list.

The point I’m making is IF George St. Pierre AND Anderson Silva are able to win BOTH their next TWO fights then we can look at the potential dream fight of Silva vs. St. Pierre. How ever Koscheck and Shields pose a serious threat to St. Pierre and Vitor posses an even larger threat to Anderson Silva. Should Silva lose to Vitor or even Okami while St. Pierre goes on to win both of his contests where does he go? Enter the Penn Fitch contest. Fitch rides a large win streak going into this fight while off the heels of dropping two consecutive fights to Frankie Edgar, Penn came back to knock out Hall of Famer Matt Hughes in twenty one seconds. Penn has shown before that he’s a capable welterweight as he’s a former champion. Both have faced St. Pierre and both have come out on the short end. That being said rematches are easy to market to the audience. You mention the outcome of the first fight, what’s changed, why this fight will be so much different then the last fight, yada yada. And really after all who is left in the welterweight that you can consider a contender? Hardy? Alves? Hughes? Kampmann? Thiago? They’re all coming off losses. One win does not put them back in the number one contender position. The only significant fighters aside from St. Pierre, Koscheck and Shields at the moment are Fitch and Penn. This fight is taking place February 27th. Now we’ve already established that St. Pierre wouldn’t be able to fight again until towards the end of 2011. (He’d fight Shields mid 2011, then require another 4-8 month rest and training) which means that the winner of Penn vs. Fitch would have to wait nearly a year to get their title shot. A very long wait for either deserving fighter in a weak division. Not to say there isn’t talent in that division but at the moment there is no real contenders left for St. Pierre. From a marketing stand point Fitch and Penn should have each been given a “feeder” fight. A fight that tests them but is easily winnable so that you can pair them up against each other afterwards. Fitch vs. Condit would have been great for Fitch not to mention a fight Condit had asked for, while Penn would need to face someone who showcases his talent but is very winnable as well. Someone like a Dan Hardy where Penn can show off his very effective striking game which at times seems to be overshadowed by his world class ground game. Following their victories Penn should then be paired up with Fitch and allow them to brawl to become the number one contender. There’s more build up behind both their already established names, and more importantly it takes away the giant time gap that they would have to wait off until they get their shot at redemption against St. Pierre. Make no mistake that his fight matters and is very important to the state of the welterweight division…it just happened too fast.

Now my question too you the readers. Penn vs. Fitch. Both unique and dominant fighters. Both at one point number one contender to St. Pierre’s title. Who wins? My thoughts will be shared next time.

Comments

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Fame-UsFame-Us 1 year, 5 months ago

Not to forget that if they were set up against Alves or Kampman or Swick like you've mentioned, all three are coming fresh off loses and makes no sense to put them into a potential contender fight. It's almost certain that they'd have to get past Fitch. I think I have an idea of how the UFC works. =D

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Fame-UsFame-Us 1 year, 5 months ago

Further more Lytle was pretty much picked apart by Alves. I know for a fact because I have that fight on DVD. It was certainly entertaining but Alves picked Lytle apart. The ONLY potential contender you could make a case for is Condit but if you take into consideration his fight against Rory it's clear he's not ready. If GSP defeats Kos and Shields which I'm sure he's capable of doing, the welterweight division has been cleaned out. You can't ignore the fact Fitch has gone 5-0 and faced much stiffer competition then any of the fighters you mentioned and pending a victory over Penn his resume is far more impressive then Condit. Victories over Alves and Penn out due a victory over Serra or a victory over Hardy.

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Fame-UsFame-Us 1 year, 5 months ago

Dan Hardy went against Swick who in his previous 10 fights went 9-1 including a 4-0 run in the UFC following his last defeat, and in dominating fashion. Hardy pretty much picked him apart. Alves went through Hughes, Koscheck and Parisyan as well. Facts are you have to defeat established fighters. Condit's victory over Rory wasn't exactly impressive. For the most part he was getting dominated but then caught him towards the end. If Condit were able to defeat Lytle and given the time frame he'd still have to defeat the likes of Alves or a Swick. Lytle has already proved to be a gate keeper. When faced with an opponent of potential contender ship and an established name Lytle has crumbled.

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EBWReturnsEBWReturns 1 year, 5 months ago

You clearly have no idea how the UFC works. They will never use Fitch or Koscheck to move anyone into a title shot, because they know everyone will lose to those two. Look at Dan Hardy, he won some meaningful fights and dodged the sharks. The UFC still sold him as a legitimate threat. On the Condit front, he's been at Jackson's for two fights. GSP rarely trains at the camp itself, he trains at Tristar in Canada. Condit has said publicly he'd still fight GSP. On Lytle, he's won four fights in a row against tough guys and he just beat a former world champion. I guarantee you that the winner of Lytle/Condit will be set up into a number one contender's fight. But they'll be set up against someone like Alves or Swick or Kampmann, because they could actually beat them.

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Fame-UsFame-Us 1 year, 5 months ago

Condit/Lyttle will not result in a NOC. Lytlle hasn't established himself as a winner. He gets the Fight of the Nights but not the key victories he needs. Condit is from Jacksons camp and has been there from the start. GSP is Jacksons most important fighter. In most cases fighters don't fight each other from the same camp. This will be another one of those cases. Jackson won't turn his back on someone who was so loyal to him, but won't turn his back in his most important fighter either. Condit vs GSP won't happen. Kim may be a potential opponent but Diaz couldn't get it done at lightweight because he was getting overpowered by guys like Maynard. Don't be mistaken because he beat Davis. Davis was a good fight for him. When he faces guys like Koscheck, Fitch, Maybe even Johnson he'll struggle. I don't think Sanchez will get back in it either. As long as guys like Kos and Fitch and Sheilds are around, they'll have to go through them and I don't see that happening.

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EBWReturnsEBWReturns 1 year, 5 months ago

The UFC is making this fight because they want to keep these guys AWAY from the title. Two big names in the division that have both been dominated by GSP in a fight that has been talked about by fans for a while. That's their only thought process on this one. The winner won't go on to anything bigger. There is a reason Fitch was supposed to be matched up with Jake Ellenberger. They're going to give him and B.J what I like to call "fringe contenders". Guys that will make a decent fight, but ultimately really doesn't give them enough forward momentum for a title shot and they also don't have to knock off contenders. The UFC groomed Shields for a title fight, and they're looking to do the same with the Condit/Lytle winner. After that you have the winner of Dong Hyun Kim/Nate Diaz, with the winner probably being a fight or two away from a shot. You also have guys like Johny Hendricks, Jake Ellenberger, and Diego Sanchez that can be moved in those positions in the future.

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mattzillamattzillamattzilla 1 year, 5 months ago

Firstly, great blog. To answer your question - BJ Penn. When the man is focused and prepared, there are very few people in his weight class(es) who can beat him...and John Fitch ain't one of them. I thought Matt Hughes would give him a good fight and maybe even win two Saturday's ago. Penn looked determined and had no nonsense demeanor I haven't seen him have in over a year or two. He's a freak of nature and when he utilizes those God given abilities to their fullest extent, it's game over.

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